Market News
Bitcoin's price has crashed 4% in the past 24 hours and is now trading back below $33,000, according to CoinGecko. While this is not the worst of news, it's also not that great.
Currently, bitcoin's price is trading above $32,900, according to Nomics, and we hope it makes a run at $35,000 soon. Like we wrote early in the week, bitcoin's chances to enter a new rally would increase if it found support above the 21-day EMA, which seems unlikely for the time being - at least while buyers are in control.
Therefore, we don't expect much positive price action until the trend starts to reverse. This means it's a great time to buy.
According to Coindesk, "Cryptocurrencies traded lower on Thursday as regulatory concerns resurfaced. Bitcoin broke below initial support at $34,000 and is down about 5% over 24 hours. The cryptocurrency could stabilize around $30,000, which is the bottom of the month-long trading range."
Could bitcoin hold this critical level of $30,000? We think it might.
In other news, Cointelegraph wrote that "Bitcoin (BTC) will not move much after Grayscale's giant 16,000-BTC unlocking date, after all, said crypto trading firm QCP Capital. In its latest market update released on Wednesday, analysts downplayed the popular theory that the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) will cause BTC's price volatility in the coming weeks."
Due to this recent bearishness, we think BTC/USD is likely to continue falling for the time being until a better mood arrives at the market.
In the altcoin of the week section, we'll discuss how HEX/BTC has been performing and how we think it will move throughout the week.
For now, let's see what traders are saying.
Traders Tweets
Today’s first tweet comes from John Wick, a crypto trader.
He shared a daily chart of bitcoin’s price and added two hypotheses:
“Squeeze Shading, Breakout, New Uptrend”.
“Squeeze Shading, Breakdown Freakout Below Support, New Uptrend”.
He wrote that “As a trader, I wait for my setups over & over. Like a lion conserving its energy waiting patiently to pounce its prey!
This is the kinda road map I expect out of this consolidation squeeze in the current market environment & if no more FUD.”
Essentially, while bitcoin’s price may dump additionally, he expects a new uptrend to form eventually in the short-term. That’s why we’re here: to surf it when it comes. Enjoy the dip.
The following tweet comes from Wolf, a TA analyst.
He shared bitcoin’s daily price chart and wrote that “No fucking way we visit 20k after over two months if negative funding. This looks more like accumulation than distribution.”
Essentially, he means that shorts have been funding most of the futures derivatives markets and that he thinks bitcoin’s price chart looks like an accumulation pattern rather than a dump.
We hope he’s correct!
The last tweet of the day comes from Zoran Kole.
He shared ETH/USD 4-hour chart and wrote that “$ETH Update: Road to $777 starts here”.
In the scenario above, ether would first have to move below current support, near $1,800. If that happens, then a move towards $777 is likely, according to the trader.
Essentially, he thinks ether price will drop and may go below $800. We hope it happens as we would add more to our portfolio.
Market Watch
During this week, BTC/USD continued to drop. Today it suffered an over 4% dump.
Currently, BTC/USD is trading just above $32,600 and compared to last week, it lost around 7%, according to Nomics. Not least, bitcoin’s price is still below a critical resistance level, the 21-day EMA (blue) - a clear bearish signal that BTC/USD may drop even further if buyers don’t come to the rescue. Not only that, but bitcoin’s price failed miserably to find support above $35,000, another bearish sign.
As we wrote last week, until bitcoin’s price is above both the 21-day EMA and the $35,000 range, we won’t change our mind much.
The VPVR, on the left of the chart, shows much resistance between $31,000 and $35,000; therefore we don’t expect this to be an easy ride. At least until we reach and surpass $40,000.
Let’s see how things are going in the altcoin world.
Weekly Altcoin
This week’s altcoin is HEX since it was voted as Altcoin of the week. Please see the results here.
HEX/USD has been overperforming the entire cryptocurrency market since last year. Additionally, the most recent bull-run hasn’t stopped, even though there was a 50% crash in bitcoin’s price. If these are not highly bullish news, we don’t know what is.
At the time of this writing, HEX/USD is trading around $0.08q, and we think it may continue to move up until it reaches $0.1 - a price range where we anticipate a minor sell-off. However, before that happens, we think it may consolidate between $0.07 and $0.08 for a while, between the 21-day EMA and the 20-day MMA (red).
Nevertheless, we hope HEX/USD continues to move up and reaches $0.2 sometime in July after the consolidation period is over. As long as new buyers come into space and new stakes are forged, we foresee an incredibly bright future for HEX, the most unique certificate of deposit the crypto-space has seen.
Hence, although we think in the short-term, HEX/USD could suffer another wick down, in the grand scheme of things, we believe it will most likely grow substantially. The longer it consolidates, the greater the next move will be.
For now, the uptrend is picking up. Until the week’s over, we can see HEX/USD trading near the top of the predicted range (blue box), close to $0.9.
Conclusion
BTC/USD has been consolidating for the past month. While bitcoin:
Remains below the 21-day EMA, 20-day, 50-day and 200-day MMA,
Continues to trade below its prior high around $64,000,
We think it’s a great time to accumulate more BTC. Once buying volume arrives at the market and bitcoin finds support above these critical levels, our confidence that the bull has returned and altcoins will start to pump back up will significantly increase.
Nevertheless, we think it’s still a great time to buy quality altcoins such as UNI, BNB and especially HEX. Let’s see how the week progresses.
Safe trades. CryptoNerds DAO Proposal 4: Results Are In!
Vote on the altcoin we’ll look at every week! This week, the winner was $HEX. See results here.
Next week’s poll is OPEN. Vote here.
It’s up to you what altcoin we pick next week. For more details, check this thread.
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