Market News
Bitcoin's price keeps trading sideways, according to CoinGecko. While we expected volatility to rise this week, it didn't. We hope soon, this trend changes.
Currently, bitcoin's price is trading close to $32,000, according to Nomics. Like we wrote last week, bitcoin's chances to enter a new rally would increase if it found support above the 21-day EMA, which seems unlikely for the time being - at least while sellers are in control.
While price-action may be disappointing, we think this remains an excellent time to accumulate other bitcoin and top altcoins such as ETH, HEX and FEVR. For instance, as of yesterday, HEX broke a new record high in BTC, ETH and USD terms.
We want to close this week with some fantastic news for bitcoin. A panel of experts, where our Co-Founder Febrero was part of, predicted bitcoin's price until 2030. If they get it right, bitcoin could go north of $4,000,000, a staggering price prediction.
According to Coindesk, "Bitcoin will be the dominant force in global finance by 2050, according to 54% of those surveyed by personal-finance site Finder. But 44% say it will never happen.
The "Bitcoin price prediction 2021" report, published Thursday, canvassed a panel of 42 experts from finance, technology and academia. Some respondents (15%) see that dominance point, labelled "hyperbitcoinisation" in the U.K. study, occurring as early as 2035.
Adoption by the developing world is seen as the key driver, with 33% of respondents saying bitcoin will become the currency of choice in developing nations within 10 years. A further 21% say that level of adoption is more than 10 years away."
While some experts predict great things for BTC/USD, it seems some are bearish on ETH.
According to Cointelegraph, "Ethereum might be the darling of the blockchain world, but at some point, the hype may just turn out to be hot air, and it's very likely that the long-awaited upgrade will not attract wider mainstream adoption. It's not clear if the expected changes will be able to deliver the promises of the Ethereum Foundation's head honchos. Until Ethereum can solve some of the deeper issues at heart, it's doubtful that Eth2 will make a significant difference for anyone outside of the community of Ethereum enthusiasts. For now, Ethereum 2.0 is not a much-needed game-changer, but rather a cosmetic upgrade."
Essentially, some crypto enthusiasts think ETH 2.0 could be vaporware and that the much needed technical changes won't make a massive difference in terms of usability. While we don't believe this is entirely accurate, we are worried about the lack of sensible progress in ethereum. For example, the Berlin hard fork implemented an upgrade that increased storage costs and the gas price to run certain functions, like calling for historical information. Why we ask? Bad move, guys. Bad move.
We take another dive at RealFevr's FEVR token in the altcoin section and how it has been performing. We'll also look into HEX since it grew over 40% during the week—incredible price performance.
For now, let’s see what traders are saying.
Traders Tweets
Today’s first tweet comes from Alistar Milne, a bitcoin investor and entrepreneur.
He shared some critical macro indicators that point to a continuation of the bull market. He made a list that reads:
“Nearly everyone bearish, Futures funding negative, USD/USDt lending rates v. low, Hashrate growing again, Inflation, Money printing, Interest rates zero or negative globally, China has banned 15 times, Tether FUD again, Trading volume v. low.”
This is exceptionally bullish since the “herd” is wrong most times. If everyone’s bearish while some important indicators show bullishness, we think it’s a magnificent sign. One that shows the trend could be about to shift.
The following tweet comes from Byzantine General, a cryptocurrency trader and TA analyst.
He shared bitcoin's price chart and added several critical indicators:
We can see that the open interest is growing, meaning more money flows into the futures markets.
He underlines that the global longs vs shorts on Binance and By bit are trending downwards, meaning more people are shorting the market.
At the bottom of the chart, we can see the global liquidations currently at their lowest levels in the year.
As Byzantine General wrote: "Retail has finally started shorting. And of course, it's when we're at support."
This is an ironic take that shows retail usually enters the market at the wrong time. Hence, bet against the herd.
The last tweet of the day comes from The Moon, a YouTuber and cryptocurrency TA analyst with over 381,000 followers on Twitter.
He shared Woobull’s “Bitcoin: Difficulty Ribbon Compression”,, that according to Woobull:
“The Difficulty Ribbon speaks to the impact of miner selling pressure on Bitcoin`s price action. When network difficulty reduces its rate of climb, miners are going out of business, leaving only the strong miners who proportionally need to sell less of their coins to remain operational; this leads to less sell pressure and more room for bullish price action. The best times to buy Bitcoin are zones where the ribbon compresses. The ribbon consists of simple moving averages of Bitcoin network difficulty so the rate of change of difficulty can be easily seen.”
As The Moon wrote: “The #Bitcoin difficulty ribbon compression indicator just started pumping (for the first time in this bull cycle! Historically a very bullish sign!”
By looking at the previous bull-runs, namely 2013 and 2017, we can see a trend that shows that once the bitcoin DRC starts moving up, the price soon follows.
Market Watch
Bitcoin’s price was recovering from a minor drop yesterday. Look at that beautiful hammer-shaped candle. What a sight. Could the bloodbath be over? Probably, we’re far from it. But one can only hope.
Currently, bitcoin’s price is trading just above $32,000 and compared to last week, it lost around 4%, according to Nomics. Not least, bitcoin’s price is still below a critical support level, the 21-day EMA (blue) - a clear bearish signal that BTC/USD may drop even further if buyers don’t come to the rescue. Not only that, but bitcoin’s price has failed miserably to find support above $35,000, and the volume keeps dropping another bearish sign.
So far, bitcoin’s salvation has been strong buy support between $28,000 and $30,000. If this support zone is broken, prepare to visit the low $20,000s. But don’t worry, you’re not alone. We’ll go down with you!
As we wrote last week, until bitcoin’s price is above both the 21-day EMA and the $35,000 range, we won’t change our mind much and will continue to think it may drop further before starting a new rally.
Still, the VPVR, on the left of the chart, shows substantial buy volume between $31,000 and $34,000; therefore, we don’t expect BTC/USD to remain below $31,000 for long if it drops. Once there’s a new rally and bitcoin’s price moves above the 21-day EMA and buying volume returns, we will become more hopeful.
If the price does not drop any further, $28,000 could be a yearly bottom.
Let’s see how things are going in the altcoin world.
Weekly Altcoin
Today we’ll look at $FEVR, RealFevr’s utility token.
FEVR/USD was launched last week at PolkaStarter. Since the launch, FEVR has gained close to 1,000% in valuation, even after the recent dip that moved the coin below $0.005 for a brief period price. Adding to that, the total market cap is close to $90 million, according to CoinMarketCap, another magnificent milestone. At the peak, it reached over $200,000,000.
Another important metric is the number of hodlers. BSCscan shows there’s over 4,200 holders.
At the time of this writing, FEVR/USD’s 12-hour chart shows the cryptocurrency is trading above $0.0052 after reaching a top close to $0.016. Right now, there’s a precise consolidation pattern forming, so we think it’s an excellent time to accumulate.
While FEVR is below the 21-day EMA, we remain cautious. Nevertheless, volume remains above $1 million, an excellent sign.
If you need some fuel to keep you engaged with the project, check out RealFevr’s new website. It’s awesome.
A quick update on HEX: it just broke its record price and is trading above 14 cents. Congrats to all HEX holders; this is an astonishing feat. Even when the blockchain time-deposit keeps being gate-kept by exchanges and coin trackers. Yes, Gecko. We’re watching you.
We think that with the launch of PulseChain, HEX will continue to appreciate as new buyers reach the market.
We can’t forget HEX use case is impressively simple and to the point - to replace the certificate of deposits. Essentially, the more hex you stake and the longer you stake for, the more yield you earn. Simple, yet elegant.
In terms of price prediction, we expect HEX/USDt to soon break $0.3. Once this happens, HEX will be closer to flipping ETH.
To finalize, more HEX stakers are being forged daily, which is another excellent sign.
Conclusion
BTC/USD has been consolidating for the past month. While bitcoin:
Remains below the 21-day EMA, 20-day, 50-day and 200-day MMA,
Continues to trade below its prior high around $64,000,
We think it’s a great time to accumulate more BTC. Once buying volume arrives at the market and bitcoin finds support above these critical levels, our confidence that the bull has returned and altcoins will start to pump back up will significantly increase.
Nevertheless, we think it’s still a great time to buy quality altcoins such as FEVR and HEX. Let’s see how the week progresses.
Safe trades.
CryptoNerds DAO Proposal 5: Vote Now!
Vote on the altcoin we’ll look at every week! This week, the winner was $FEVR.
Next week’s poll is OPEN. Vote here.
It’s up to you what altcoin we pick next week. For more details, check this thread.
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